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Key Markets & Factors

Transit Business Plan Update

3.0 KEY MARKETS AND FACTORS AFFECTING TRANSIT

Two week passenger counts (Oct. 2000 and March 2001)

Two week passenger counts are taken twice per year in Nanaimo. Some of the key findings of the most recent counts:

Average Weekday Ridership Trends

Busplan Update 1 busplan update 2

Public Opinion Survey (April 2000)

A public opinion survey of both transit users and non-users in the Nanaimo Region was undertaken in April 2000. Some of the key results include the following:

On-Board Passenger Survey (December 1999)

The Transit Business Plan used the results from the on-board passenger survey taken in February 1996. A further on-board passenger survey has since been taken (in December 1999) with the following differences:

Population trends:

The Transit Business Plan was based on gradually moderating population growth in the RDN, decreasing from a 20% increase between 1991 and 1996 to a 14% increase between 1996 and 2001. In fact, population growth in the region (and in the province as a whole) slowed much more abruptly than what was forecast. For the RDN, the annual rate of growth dropped from 3.0% in 1996-97 to 1.2% in 1997-98, and the rate has stayed in that range. Overall, the RDN is now forecast to increase by only about 8-9% between 1996 and 2001. Relative growth for different age groups will follow a similar pattern to what was originally forecast - with the 80+ group growing the fastest - but overall rates of growth will be slower.

In the short term, this slowdown in population growth will not have a major impact on transit use. Much of the forecast growth in transit ridership was based on increasing the market penetration for transit and encouraging commuters who currently travel by automobile to take the bus. If this slow rate of population growth continues over the longer term, however, it will begin to impact on the demand for transit.

Last Modified:  Feb 10, 2017
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